AROYA
AROYA · Financial Planning · Section 8.5 prototype

Burly Botanicals · Financial ROI of Fixing

First end-to-end prototype of the AROYA Advanced Section 8.5 bolt-on. Burly is the walkthrough demo — pilot data swaps to Ryan / Juicy once Brad delivers yields.
FacilityBurly Botanicals (3920) StateOklahoma (Oklahoma City) Substratecoco 2-gal Char-Coir (12409 rockwool) Window2026-05-13 → 2026-05-22 Active HGs4 (3 active flower) Source2-wk audit + 6-wk audit on disk Owner surveynone on file — every $-input (assumed) Report date2026-05-26
For Brad (internal review · v2 — state inference live). Burly is in Oklahoma City. facility_financials.yaml now carries the researched OKC numbers (OG&E $0.085/kWh, OKC Utilities $0.00582/gal at the dripper, Athena Pro $0.06/gal mixed feed, OK cultivation labor $16/hr) — but wholesale_price_per_lb is intentionally null so the new state-by-state pricing override hierarchy fires. Watch the amber "state inference (OK: $700/lb)" pills next to every $-figure that uses wholesale price; if Michael ever supplies a survey number it would flip them green ("owner-supplied"); the red "national avg — needs owner override" tier would fire only if the state were missing from state_pricing.yaml. OK ~$700/lb is ~35% below the $1,081 national default — this is the textbook "state inference matters" case for AROYA.

Financial Planning · ROI of Fixing Window: 2026-05-13 → 2026-05-22 · 9 days · 8 rooms

Owner-facing translation layer — operator metrics into check-writer dollars. Every $-number is haircut for confidence and flags (assumed) inputs. Cost-down + risk-down lead; yield-uplift is haircut hardest.

Current losses · annual
$4.7k
annualized vs facility's own best quartile · 1 defaulted input(s)
haircut 0.2 · low state inference (OK: $700/lb)
Projected gain · top rec
$19k/cycle
highest-$ owner-tagged rec · see table below
haircut 0.2 · low state inference (OK: $700/lb)
Where to spend · payback
9.6 mo
payback · AUTOMAIT install + recipe 147112 live on 16868
haircut 0.4 · med

Yield-CV trend · last 4 HGs

Predictability of revenue. Current CV = 60.5%. Halving it recovers $3.9k/cycle haircut 0.4 · med state inference (OK: $700/lb).

Cost-down lanes · $/lb

Energy
$212.50/lb (assumed)
kWh/lb × $/kWh — feed in owner bill to escape the (assumed) tier
haircut 0.2 · low
Water + Nutrient
$9.93/lb (assumed)
feed_gal × ($/gal water + $/gal nutrient) ÷ yield_lb
haircut 0.2 · low
Labor
$64.65/lb (assumed)
hr/cycle × $/hr ÷ yield_lb
haircut 0.2 · low

Per-recommendation $-priority

OwnerRecKindΔ$/cycle ConfidenceTime-to-realizeWhy
Michael Triple P1 shot duration + push feed EC (Cycle 41 stretch)
16868 · Cycle 41 Wk 2–3 stretch
yield_lift $19k/cycle
state inference (OK: $700/lb)
haircut 0.2 · low 1 cycle (Cycle 42)
P1 shot 60s → 180–240s, 4–6 shots in first 2h after P0 ends. P0 delay 2–3h. Feed EC 2.6–2.8 mS. Anchors stretch and builds the EC stack. Phase target: 20–30 absolute pp overnight dryback; current trajectory is well below.
Michael Restore 'Anchoring (Heavy DB)' phase in 13-phase template
Recipe template · Cycle 42+ stretch
yield_lift $19k/cycle
state inference (OK: $700/lb)
haircut 0.2 · low 1 cycle (Cycle 42)
Heavy P3 dryback (25–35 absolute pp on coco) at the very start of stretch is what anchors generative steering. Cycle 41's failure here is the textbook case.
Michael Hold Cycle 40 stack, plan ripening pull-back Wk 7
12403 · Cycle 40 Wk 6 Pump/Ripen entry
risk_down $3.9k/cycle
state inference (OK: $700/lb)
haircut 0.4 · med Current cycle (1 cycle)
Substrate EC stack 5.25 mS up from 1.98 — phase target 6.0–8.0 mS through ripen. Drop feed EC to 2.0 mS Wk 7. Deepen P3 dryback into 25+ absolute pp.
Brittany Raise lights-on VPD into 1.0–1.2 kPa (Cycle 41)
16868 · Cycle 41 stretch
cost_down $480/cycle haircut 0.2 · low Within 5–7 days
Drop RH 4–5%, raise air-temp 1–2°F if HVAC has headroom. Fixes the climate so P0 dryback can establish; without VPD, irrigation tuning can't land. Phase target: P0 build of 1–3 absolute pp before first P1 shot.
Michael Tighten per-phase pore_EC guardrails (recipe config)
Recipe guardrails · all flower phases
cost_down $480/cycle haircut 0.4 · med Immediate (config push)
Stretch target_min 5.0/max 12.0; Bulking 3.5/7.0; Ripening 6.0/8.0; Flush 1.0/4.0. Today everything sits at 3.0/5.0 across flower phases — zero alerts fired in 9 days. Catches EC stack collapse in P2 before it becomes a yield event.
Process CO₂ facility setpoint audit (4 of 8 rooms over-enriching)
CO₂ facility setpoint
cost_down $320/cycle haircut 0.4 · med Immediate (config)
4 of 8 rooms 1500–1900 ppm (target 1000–1200). Empty turnover 12406 still being enriched. Either one setpoint is wrong or multiple rooms are mis-configured.
Process AUTOMAIT install + recipe 147112 live on 16868
facility-wide
capex_enable 9.6 mo payback haircut 0.4 · med 1–2 cycles post-install
Manual 13-phase template can't ratchet per-phase like AUTOMAIT can. Cycle 41 lead failure is the textbook case for sensor-triggered P1/P2 stack control. Resolve May 6 internal-consult runoff-threshold blocker first.

Assumptions & caveats

Wholesale $/lb resolved via state inference (tier 2 of 3). Facility state = OK$700/lb (state_pricing.yaml). Cultivator override (tier 1) would replace this; national default (tier 3, $1081/lb) would overstate Oklahoma realized $/lb by ~35%. Owner survey still required before external publish to upgrade to owner-supplied.

Wholesale $/lb override hierarchy — this report:
6 figures derived from state inference for Oklahoma (OK: $700/lb).

Defaulted inputs in this section (lowest confidence in section: low, 5 defaulted, 14 $-figures generated):

  • harvests_per_year → defaulted to 5.0 (assumed)
  • kwh_per_lb → defaulted to (assumed)
  • feed_volume_gal_per_cycle → defaulted to (assumed)
  • runoff_pct → defaulted to (assumed)
  • labor_hours_per_cycle → defaulted to (assumed)

Default sources (re-validate annually):

  • Cannabis Benchmarks — May 2026 regional spot index
  • ElectricityPlans — 2025 US commercial avg $/kWh
  • TSRgrow Energy Cost Guide — 2025 kWh/lb median
  • AROYA ROI Calculator — 2025 internal — labor/nutrient/water defaults

Confidence haircuts applied: high 0.7 · med 0.4 · low 0.2 — baked into every $-figure above. See aroya-reporting/lib/financial_roi.py framing rules.